Launch of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 Opening Remarks (Virtual)

My esteemed colleague, the OECD Secretary-General,

Excellencies,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Good morning from Rome.

I am pleased to join you today for the launch of the new edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook.

This joint publication is the result of a long-standing and productive partnership between FAO and the OECD - its history goes back to 2004, 21 years ago.

I wish to extend my sincere thanks to the OECD Secretary-General and his team, as well as to the many experts and partners who have contributed to this important work.

I wish to thank the OECD for this important, consistent and reliable partnership.

This year’s Outlook comes at a time of profound transformation.

We are navigating a world marked by interconnected crises – extreme climate shocks, economic volatility, rising conflicts and geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty of international multilateralism.

Yes, this is also a time of great opportunities.

With the right tools, strong partnerships, strong political will, and with adequate, consistent and reliable resources, we can transform these challenges into catalysts for progress.

The Outlook provides a clear, evidence-based and data-based perspective and prediction on the future of global agrifood systems.

It highlights a concerning disparity:

While rising incomes will increase the per capita consumption of animal-source foods in lower-middle-income countries to about 360 kilocalories per day,

Low-income countries will remain at just 143 kilocalories per day – less than half the FAO benchmark set out in the Healthy Diet Basket.

SIDS, LDCs and LLDCs are well below this benchmark.

For this reason, in 2023 we convened the first Global Conference on Sustainable Livestock Transformation, and in September this year we will hold the second Global Conference because as people are becoming richer and are leading a better life, the consumption in animal products, including fish, is increasing.

This is more than a nutritional gap – it is a gap in opportunity, dignity, and health.

We must act decisively to bridge this divide and ensure no one is left behind.

The Outlook also projects that global agricultural and fish production will increase by 14 percent, driven largely by productivity gains in middle-income countries.

However, this growth is expected to be accompanied by a 6 percent rise in direct greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production due to expanding livestock herds and cropland.

But we have the solutions. We know that while the reduction in carbon intensity is a positive development, these figures underscore that efficiency gains alone are not sufficient.

We must pursue growth with purpose –– we must produce more with less, with fewer agricultural inputs and less impact on the environment

This is why FAO continues to champion the Four Betters – better production, better nutrition, a better environment, and a better life – as the core vision underlining the FAO Strategic Framework 2022-31 endorsed unanimously by FAO Members in 2021.

And we are advancing this vision through the 4Rs: Recover, Reform, Rebuild, and Renaissance.

These principles are not abstract ideas – they are practical and actionable actions.

They are embedded in our Hand-in-Hand Initiative, which leverages data and partnerships to direct investments where they are most needed.

They come to life through FAO’s Digital Villages Initiative, bringing innovation to rural communities.

And they are central to our Global Roadmap for Agrifood Systems Transformation, which aims to align national strategies with global goals.

This year’s Outlook’s scenario analysis shows that we can eliminate undernourishment and reduce emissions by 7 percent from current levels – if we boost food availability through a 15 percent increase in agricultural productivity.

Agricultural productivity is directly linked to availability of resources and competitiveness to produce more and better agricultural commodities.

This is the data-driven transformation that FAO is actively supporting through our decentralized offices network and global partnerships.

As global demand for food and feed continue to grow, the Outlook projects that 22 percent of all calories will cross international borders over the next decade.

This highlights the critical importance of multilateral cooperation and a rules-based trading system.

Trade is not just about markets – it is about resilience, equity, and opportunity and sustainability.

It links producers with consumers and connects surplus to scarcity areas.

But for trade to benefit all, it must be transparent, fair, non-discriminatory, and inclusive.

Above all, we need to respect our smallholder farmers.

We must also acknowledge the pressure that declining real agricultural prices will place on farmers – particularly smallholders.

The FAO analysis on the real cost – hidden costs- of agrifood systems highlights the true costs of agricultural products and the need to respect nature and the environment and appreciate the world’s farmers and producers.

The Outlook cautions that without sustained productivity gains, the livelihoods and food security of all our farmers will be threatened.

Farming is the main path out of poverty for rural households, and that is why we must empower farmers with access to innovation, quality inputs, markets, and risk management tools, as well as insurance.

Farmers are essential agents of change, central to building more efficient, more inclusive, more resilient and more sustainable agrifood systems.

Ladies and gentlemen,

The 2025 edition of the Outlook is more than a glimpse into the future – it is a call to action.

It highlights that the future of food is determined by the choices and decisions we make today.

Let us harness the insights of this report to guide our actions. I encourage all Members and partners to think big and longer, design big and longer and do concrete, despite the challenges.

And let us move forward together – towards a world free of hunger, poverty and inequality.

At FAO, we remain committed to working hand in hand with all our Members and partners to ensure the effective transformation of global agrifood systems.

Thank you.