Banana Market Review 2019
09/01/2020
A comprehensive analysis of production, trade, and prices of bananas.
Banana Statistical Compendium 2019
07/01/2020
The Banana Statistical compendium, issued once a year, contains information on global banana trade. Its sources include information provided by FAO member nations, traders, news bulletins and the opinions of commodity specialists and represents the most authoritative and up-to-date source of information on the world banana economy.
Banana Market review 2018
09/10/2019
A comprehensive analysis of production, trade, and prices of bananas.
Banana Statistical Compendium 2018
09/05/2019
The Banana Statistical compendium, issued once a year, contains information on global banana trade. Its sources include information provided by FAO member nations, traders, news bulletins and the opinions of commodity specialists and represents the most authoritative and up-to-date source of information on the world banana economy.
Banana market review 2015 - 2016
01/01/2017
The Banana Market Review, issued once a year, contains information and analysis on global banana trade, including imports, exports, prices and policy changes. Information and data comes from various sources, including FAO member nations, traders and the world press.
Ecuador’s banana sector under climate change
05/01/2016
At the request of the Ecuadorian Government, FAO undertook a technical assistance to generate an integrated assessment climate impacts on the banana value chain in support of the Ecuador initiatives towards sustainable and climate-adapted strategies. Both biophysical and socio-economic analyses were carried out using a team of FAO and international experts. Evidence was generated on: (i) banana suitability under climate change in Ecuador and other banana producing countries; (ii) climate impacts on yields and potential diseases incidence for bananas in Ecuador; (iii) carbon footprint and greenhouse gas emissions from production to consumption, including transportation and waste disposal. Policy analysis focused on the Government measures aimed at ensuring a fairer distribution of returns between laborers, plantations owners and exporters. The studies were carried between September 2012 and December 2013 and the key findings were presented at a national multi-stakeholder workshop held i n January 2014 in Guayaquil, Ecuador.
The changing role of multinational companies in the global banana trade
01/01/2014
Multinational trading companies, and in particular the three largest banana traders (Chiquita, Dole and del Monte), have historically played a major role in the international banana trade, exerting substantial market power in particular on the purchasing side. These vertically integrated multinational firms engage in production, purchase, transport, and marketing of bananas. They own fleet and ripening facilities, and have their own distribution networks in the importing countries, creating im portant economies of scale. The scope of their operations and their influence over the banana trade have, however, changed over time. The combined market share of the top three companies was at its highest in the 1980’s, when they controlled almost two thirds (65.3%) of global banana exports2, and the share has gradually declined since. In 2013, the market share of the top three companies was slightly over one third (36.6%) and the share of the top five companies was 44.4%, down from 70% in 2002. As a consequence, other companies now account for over half of all exports.
Banana market review and banana statistics 2012-2013
01/01/2014
This report is issued on an annual basis to Members and Observers of the Sub-Group on Bananas of the Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits. It is prepared by the Market and Policy Analyses of Raw Materials, Horticulture and Tropical (RAMHOT) Products Team, Trade and Market Division, FAO, Rome, and the tables contained bring together the information available to FAO, supplemented by data obtained from other sources in particular with regard to preliminary estimates.
Agriculture and poverty in commodity dependent African countries - A rural household perspective from the United Republic of Tanzania
01/01/2007
This report explores how farm productivity affects poverty, and how various factor market constraints affect farm productivity. The empirical analysis draws on representative surveys of farm households in Kilimanjaro and Ruvuma, two cash crop growing regions in the United Republic of Tanzania. Poorer households were found not only to possess fewer assets, but also to be much less productive. Findings show that agricultural productivity directly affects household consumption and hence overall pov erty and welfare. Stochastic production frontier analysis indicates that many farmers are farming well below best practice in the region. Holding inputs constant, they attain on average only 60 percent of the output obtained by their best counterparts. Analysis of allocative efficiency suggests that family labour is substantially overutilized, a sign of considerable excess labour supply. Use of intermediate inputs on the other hand is well below what is commensurate with the estimated value of t heir marginal productivities. An important reason for low input use is lack of credit to purchase inputs, but difficult access to the inputs themselves and being connected to the economy more broadly are also important impediments. Easy access to credit is positively associated with being a member of a savings association or being in a contractual arrangement with a cooperative or firm. Irrigation infrastructure facilitates access to credit. Together these findings support a continuing emphasis on increasing agricultural productivity in designing poverty reduction policies. Better agronomic practices and increased input use will be crucial in this strategy. Better access to inputs and improved roads and transport services will further help boost input application. Financial constraints might be relieved through fostering institutional arrangements facilitating contract enforcement (e.g. contract farming, marketing cooperatives) and institutions that facilitate saving by the households themselves. They may also be relieved by the provision of more adequate consumption safety nets. The overall results suggest that a pro-poor rural development strategy needs to be anchored around improvements in agricultural productivity.
Food Outlook - October 2002
02/10/2002
The global supply and demand balance for cereals is pointing to a tighter situation in 2002/03 than was anticipated earlier in the wake of deteriorating crop prospects in a number of major producing countries. Based on the production and consumption forecasts for 2002/03, world cereal stocks for crop years ending in 2003 are expected to plunge sharply. The humanitarian crisis in southern Africa is deepening as international response has so far seriously fallen short of needs. Globally, 32 countries are presently facing food emergencies and need food assistance. FAO’s forecast of global cereal output in 2002 has been revised downward to 1 830 million tonnes, 3 percent down from last year and the smallest crop since 1995. On latest indications, output of wheat is forecast at 563 million tonnes, down 3 percent, that of coarse grains at 874 million tonnes would be down by close to 4 percent, while rice production, at 394 million tonnes (milled basis), would be down by 1.4 percent. World cereal trade (exports) in 2002/03 is forecast at 236 million tonnes, which would be some 4 million tonnes below the previous season’s record volume. The expected decline is exclusively on account of a sharp contraction expected in world wheat trade, while trade in coarse grains and rice is expected to rise. World cereal utilization is forecast at 1 940 million tonnes in 2002/03, which would represent a negligible growth from the previous year, and stand about 10 percent, below the 10-year trend. World cereal stocks by the end of the crop seasons ending in 2003 are forecast to fall sharply to 466 million tonnes, 108 million tonnes down from their already reduced opening level. Apart from poor crops in several important producing countries, the continuing policy of significant stock reductions in China, would still account for a large proportion of the total anticipated decline in stocks at the global level. International wheat and coarse grain prices have increased in recent months, fuelled by growing evidence of tighter exportable grain supplies in traditional grain exporting countries. By contrast, for rice, large supplies in major exporting countries are keeping prices under pressure. FOOD AND AGRICULTUR
Food Outlook - July 2002
02/07/2002
The new 2002/03 marketing season could mark the beginning of a much tighter supply and demand situation for cereals: opening stocks are smaller than in the previous season, production is forecast to fall and consumption is expected to rise. A total of 31 countries throughout the world are currently experiencing severe food shortages and require international food assistance. A new food crisis has emerged in southern Africa, following two successive years of poor harvests in most countries of the subregion, calling for immediate international response. FAO’s forecast of global cereal output in 2002 has been revised downward to 1 878 million tones, considerably less than expectations in May, and marginally below last year’s level. On latest indications, output of wheat is forecast at 578 million tonnes, down 0.6 percent, while that of coarse grains would be down 0.3 percent at 903 million tones. Production of rice is seen to remain virtually unchanged from the previous year, at 397 million tonnes (milled basis). World cereal trade in 2002/03 is forecast at 235 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from 2001/02, mostly due to smaller wheat and rice imports, while trade in coarse grains is expected to increase slightly. A sharp reduction in imports by the developed countries would be almost offset by a large increase for the developing countries. World cereal utilization is forecast to reach 1 938 million tones in 2001/02, 1.4 percent up from the previous year’s level. Early indications for 2002/03 indicate that the growth in cereal utilization could continue but at a slower pace. World cereal stocks by the end of the crop seasons in 2003 are forecast to fall sharply to 498 million tonnes, 71 million tonnes down from their already reduced opening level. At the global level, the anticipated decline in wheat inventories would be most significant but reductions in coarse grains and rice stocks are also expected to be substantial. International cereal prices moved up in the past two months. Wheat prices rose considerably in response to poorer crop prospects in a number of major exporting countries. Maize prices have also strengthened, largely reflecting faster pace in import purchases in recent weeks. Rice prices rose slightly, reflecting tighter supplies in some exporting countries and policy measures in others.
Food Outlook - May 2002
03/05/2002
FAO’s first forecasts for cereal production in 2002 and utilization in 2002/03 indicate that output will remain below the expected level of utilization and stocks will have to be drawn down again in 2003 for the fourth consecutive year. However, supplies are expected to remain ample, particularly of wheat and coarse grains. Despite a generally favourable global food outlook, some 34 countries around the world are experiencing food shortages. The emerging situation in southern Africa gives particular cause for concern. World cereal output in 2002 is forecast at 1 905 million tonnes (including rice in milled equivalent), up 1.1 percent from 2001. Output of wheat is forecast at 603 million tonnes, up 3.7 percent, while that of coarse grains is seen to rise marginally to 910 million tonnes. By contrast, production of rice is tentatively forecast at 392 million tonnes (milled basis), down 1.1 percent from 2001. FAO’s first forecast of world cereal trade in 2002/03 is 236 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes down from the estimated volume in 2001/02. Global imports of wheat are forecast to decline in the 2002/03 July/June trade year while those of coarse grains are expected to increase. Rice trade in 2003 is tentatively forecast to decrease. International wheat and coarse grain prices remain under downward pressure, on the basis of large exportable supplies and generally favourable production prospects. By contrast, rice prices have held steady notwithstanding the arrival of new crop supply on the market. Meat supplies on international markets are expected to rebound in 2002 as animal disease restrictions are lifted for previously afflicted meat exporting countries. A return to normal consumption patterns should favour increased trade, but large supplies of all meats are expected to dampen any significant upward price movement. International prices for dairy products have fallen substantially since mid-2001, with the result that prices for most dairy products are currently at levels rarely seen over the past decade. It would appear that the decline has bottomed out and that prices for some dairy products may rise during the second-half of the year. Growth in global output of oils and fats is forecast to slow down in 2001/02, but could increase for oilcakes and meals. While international prices for oils and fats are expected to recover further from the previous season, the oilcakes and meals sector could suffer downward price pressure as supplies increase relatively more than demand. World pulse production is forecast to grow strongly in 2002, and trade could also increase, but prices will likely decline as exportable supplies are expected to be large. Sugar production is forecast to increase again in 2002/03, signaling another season of excess supply and potentially weaker prices.
Food Outlook - February 2002
04/02/2002
Global cereal output in 2001 is provisionally estimated at 1 880 million tonnes (including rice in milled terms), slightly up from the forecast in December and 1.2 percent up on the previous year. However, with global cereal utilization in 2001/02 still forecast to be well above this level at 1 935 million tonnes, the global cereal stocks will be drawn down significantly.
Food Outlook - December 2001
03/12/2001
Latest information indicates a slightly larger global cereal output in 2001, of 1 870 million tonnes (including rice in milled terms). However, even at this level, production would still be less than the anticipated utilization requirements in 2001/02, leading to a significant draw-down of cereal stocks. While Afghanistan currently faces a grave food supply situation, food emergencies persist in many other countries. World cereal trade in 2001/02 is forecast at 233 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous season’s estimated volume. Stronger demand for wheat and rice would be offset by a reduction in coarse grain trade. International prices for most cereals have changed little since September. Wheat prices have fallen below the previous year’s levels, reflecting relatively large export supplies and slack import demand. Large maize inventories, on top of abundant supplies of feed wheat, continue to weigh on feed grain prices, while new rice crop supplies on the market have kept international rice prices under pressure in the past three months. Total cereal food aid in 2001/02 (July/June) could increase by 1 million tonnes, to 9.5 million tonnes (in grain equivalent), after a sharp drop in the previous season. Latest information puts total shipments in 2000/01 at 8.5 million tonnes, 24 percent smaller than in 1999/2000. Cereal import bills could rise in 2001/02. Should the current forecasts for cereal trade, food aid and prices for 2001/02 materialize, the more vulnerable and food deficit regions could face larger cereal import bills this season than in 2000/01. Global milk output in 2001 is forecast at 585 million tonnes, up 2 percent from the previous year. Although the international dairy market was well-balanced up until mid2001, prices of dairy products have weakened somewhat in recent months due to reduced import demand. Global sugar demand in 2001 is currently forecast to reach 130.7 million tonnes, up by about 2 million tonnes from the previous year, and overtaking annual production, now forecast at 129.4 million tonnes, for the first time in seven years. Although early indications point to a production deficit also in 2002, adequate global stocks are expected to ensure continued market stability throughout 2002.
Food Outlook - June 2001
04/06/2001
World cereal stocks will be drawn down again in 2001/02. Although latest indications continue to point to a larger cereal crop in 2001, output would be insufficient to meet global utilization for the third year in succession, leading to a further reduction in cereal stocks by the conclusion of crop seasons ending in 2002. World cereal output in 2001 is forecast at 1 878 million tonnes, (including rice in milled terms), 1.3 percent above 2000. Output of wheat is forecast at 577 million tonnes, 1.6 percent below last year, while that of coarse grains is seen to rise by about 4 percent to 905 million tonnes. Production of rice is tentatively forecast at 396 million tonnes (milled basis), marginally down from 2000. Food emergencies of varying intensity persist for over 60 million people worldwide as a result of natural and man-made disasters. FAO’s first forecast of world cereal trade in 2001/02 is 229 million tonnes, about 4 million tonnes below the estimated volume in 2000/01. Global imports of wheat and coarse grains are forecast to be smaller while rice trade in 2002 is tentatively expected to increase marginally from the current year’s level. International wheat prices made further gains over the past two months, and remain significantly above those in the corresponding period of the previous season. However, coarse grains and rice prices have fallen well below the levels prevailing at the same time last year. Global cassava production and trade rose moderately in 2000, but prices fell to a new record low. The outlook for 2001 points to a contraction in output, reflecting poor prospects for Africa and Asia. Weak import demand by the EC might also depress the volume of trade and prices. International prices for oils/fats and oilmeals remain depressed, despite an increase in demand since the beginning of the 2000/01 (October/September) season. The market continues to be dominated by conditions of over-supply. International meat prices have strengthened during the first quarter of 2001, largely in response to a slow-down in output growth and market closures linked to disease outbreaks in several parts of the globe. International prices for dairy products in the first four months of 2001 were higher than the average for 2000, illustrating generally favourable international demand coupled with limited export availability. International sugar prices have strengthened in recent months in response to reduced global production prospects coupled with increased import demand.
Food Outlook - February 2001
05/02/2001
World cereal output in 2000 is provisionally estimated at 1 852 million tonnes, up slightly from the forecast in November. The forecast for global cereal utilization has also been adjusted upward to 1 909 million tonnes. The shortfall in production will have to be met by a significant drawdown of global cereal stocks. The estimates of cereal stocks in China (Mainland) have been revised substantially upward for all years beginning in 1980, leading to significantly higher figures for global stocks than were reported previously. However, the revisions, although large in absolute terms, only represent statistical adjustments in the historical supply and consumption series in China and, therefore, have negligible or no impact on the market fundamentals. Latest information indicates that over 60 million people face food emergencies throughout the world due to natural hazards and man-made disasters. World cereal trade in 2000/01 (July/June) is now forecast at 236 million tonnes, some 2 million tonnes less than was reported in November but slightly higher than the previous year’s volume. Most of the increase is expected to be derived from larger import demand for coarse grains. International wheat and coarse grains prices made small gains since November, but rice prices were generally lower. Large supplies in exporting countries continue to weigh on cereal markets. Prices of oilseeds and products are forecast to continue moving in opposite directions in 2000/01. While anticipated ample supplies of oils and fats, relative to demand, will likely limit the chances for a sustained recovery in prices for oils/fats, for oilseeds, oilcakes and meals, the tightening supply/demand situation could result in further price recovery. Trade in oilseed products is expected to expand further, but at a lower rate than in the last two seasons. The growth in global meat output slowed in 2000, mostly in response to smaller production in developed countries. Influenced by market disruptions caused by outbreaks in animal disease in major exporting countries, world meat trade grew at less than 2 percent. International trade prospects for 2001, while expected to expand, are likely to be influenced by continuing BSE concerns, a factor which could also weigh on beef prices during 2001.
Food Outlook - September 2000
04/09/2000
Latest indications continue to point to increased cereal output in 2000, although the growth will be lower than expected earlier. This reaffirms earlier forecasts that total cereal production will not be sufficient to meet expected utilization requirements in 2000/01, causing global cereal reserves to be drawn down. FAO’s latest forecast for cereal production in 2000 is 1 881 million tonnes, up 0.3 percent on last year. Output of wheat is forecast at 587 million tonnes, down by 0.4 percent from the previous year, while that of coarse grains is seen to rise by 1.6 percent to 896 million tonnes. The forecast for the global rice crop in 2000 remains unchanged, at 398 million tonnes (milled basis), 1.3 percent less than the record crop last year. Food supply difficulties persist in many developing countries. As of end-August, the number of developing countries facing serious food difficulties worldwide stands at 36, unchanged from June. Additionally, however, there are several other countries affected by serious but localized disasters, mainly floods and droughts. World trade in cereals is expected to expand further in 2000/01, to 232 million tonnes, 2 million tonnes above the estimated volume in 1999/2000. Global trade in coarse grains is forecast to increase while trade in wheat may decline marginally. Cereal export prices remained weak during most of the past three months. However, wheat and coarse grain prices began to recover in late August mostly in response to less favourable crop prospects in some countries and strong import demand. A gradual tightening of world meat supplies is pushing up prices in 2000. Limited use of export programmes will likely constrain trade growth to only 1 percent with developing countries set to capture all of the growth in meat exports. During 1999/2000, prices for oils and fats declined further due to record global supplies, while oilmeal prices started to strengthen again due to a tightening supply/demand situation. The 2000/01 season is likely to be characterized by expanding meal production and contracting oils and fats output.
Food Outlook - June 2000
05/06/2000
Latest indications continue to point to a larger cereal output in 2000. However, based on the current forecasts, total cereal production would not be sufficient to meet expected utilization requirements in 2000/01 and global cereal reserves would be drawn down again next season. FAO’s latest forecast puts global cereal output in 2000 at 1 896 million tonnes, up more than 1 percent from 1999. Output of wheat is forecast at 590 million tonnes, up slightly from the previous year, while that of coarse grains is seen to rise by over 3 percent to 908 million tonnes. The global rice crop is tentatively forecast at 398 million tonnes (milled basis) in 2000, 1 percent less than the record crop last year. The number of countries facing food emergencies has increased since April. As of end-May 2000, 36 developing countries face serious food shortages, primarily due to drought, but also due to civil strife and floods, particularly in Africa. FAO’s first forecast of world cereal trade in 2000/01 is 221 million tonnes, about 4 million tonnes below the estimated import volume in 1999/2000. Global imports of wheat and coarse grains are forecast to be smaller while rice trade in 2001 is tentatively expected to remain unchanged from this year. International prices for most cereals remain under pressure. For rice, a declining trend in prices continued amid ample new-crop supplies, combined with generally lack-lustre trade. Maize prices remain mostly unchanged from March but wheat edged slightly upward in May, largely influenced by weather conditions in the United States. FAO estimates world sugar production in 1999/2000 at 134.3 million tonnes, some 2 percent up from the previous year and above expected demand in the corresponding period. As a result, sugar prices declined through the first six months of the 1999/2000 season, reaching a 14-year low in late February. However, prices rebounded in the past two months, in response to a pick-up in import demand in several major markets, and early forecasts of reduced sugar output in 2000/01.
Food Outlook - April 2000
03/04/2000
FAO’s first forecast of world cereal production in 2000 is 1 890 million tonnes, some 1 percent above 1999. Output of wheat is forecast at 595 million tonnes, 1 percent up from 1999, that of coarse grains at 900 million tonnes, nearly 3 percent up, while the rice crop (milled basis) is tentatively forecast to fall by 1 percent to 395 million tonnes. While early forecasts point to higher cereal production in 2000, output would not be sufficient to meet expected utilization requirements in 2000/01, and global cereal reserves would have to be drawn down. Food emergencies persist in 34 countries throughout the world, and unfavourable prospects in several others could lead to localized supply difficulties. FAO’s latest forecast of world cereal trade in 1999/2000 is 222 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous report and some 4 percent above the previous year’s volume. The increase is attributed to larger imports of both wheat and coarse grains, which would more than offset the likely decline in rice trade. International grain prices have been volatile and slightly higher in recent weeks, reflecting active trade and concern over adverse weather for the 2000 crop in the major producing areas of the United States. Ample new-crop supplies and dull trading pressured international rice prices downward. The FAO Export Price Index for Rice averaged 104 points in March, its lowest level since June 1994. Global cassava production recovered in 1999, resulting in an overall increase in food, feed and industrial utilization. Large export availabilities led to a substantial expansion of trade, but prices fell to their lowest level in the decade. Global milk production is forecast to increase slightly in 2000, but with sustained import demand expected, exportable supplies, especially of milk powder, could be in short supply. As a result, international prices for most dairy products, and especially milk powder, are expected to increase during 2000.
Food Outlook - February 2000
03/02/2000
FAO now estimates world cereal output in 1999 at 1 872 million tonnes, (including rice in milled terms), above average, and only slightly below the previous year’s level. However, this would be below anticipated global cereal utilization in 1999/2000 and, as a result, global cereal stocks will have to be drawn down for the first time in 4 years. The early outlook for 2000 cereal crops is mixed. In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat plantings fell in the United States, but the spring wheat area in Canada could rise. In Europe, the winter wheat area expanded in the EC and in several eastern European countries. In the southern hemisphere, prospects are favourable for the 2000 coarse grains crops in southern Africa and South America. In the equatorial belt and the southern hemisphere the harvest of the 2000 rice crop will start soon but plantings were reduced and output will be down. Food emergencies persist in many countries throughout the world due to frequent natural hazards and, increasingly, by man-made disasters. FAO latest forecast of world trade in cereals in 1999/2000 is 222 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes more than earlier anticipated, and 7 million tonnes up from the previous year. Latest indications point to an increase of about 6 percent in global wheat shipments and 3 percent for coarse grains, but a 4 percent reduction for rice. International export prices for most cereals strengthened in recent weeks. Latest indications of a tighter than expected cereal balance in the United States lent significant support to wheat and coarse grains markets in January, while some unexpected buying activity helped the FAO Rice Export Price Index gain one point from its December low. Global meat output grew 2 percent in 1999 buoyed by low feed prices. World trade in meat also grew, surging by 5 percent, mostly as a result of recovering Asian demand and increasing use of export programmes. This expansion is unlikely to be replicated in 2000 as red meat supplies are expected to contract. Prices of oilseed products are anticipated to recover in 1999/2000, in response to a tightening supply/demand situation. Oilseed production is expected to rise only marginally and overall output of oilcrop-based products is likely to fall short of demand. Regarding trade, a rise in shipments of oils and fats is expected to contrast with reduced growth in trade of oilcakes and meals.