Meat Market Review: 2019 Outlook, December 2019
20/12/2019
Global meat output is forecast at 335 million tonnes (in carcass weight equivalent) in 2019, 1 percent lower than in 2018. This marks a departure from the stable growth trend recorded over the past two decades and indicates a sharper fall than anticipated in May, principally due to a deeper than earlier expected impact of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China and its spread to several East Asian countries. World meat exports is forecast at 36 million tonnes in 2019, up 6.7 percent from 2018, principally driven by increased imports by China due to domestic tightness caused by ASF-related production losses. The FAO Meat Price Index measured by the FAO Meat Price Index, have continued to register moderate month-on-month increases since the start of 2019, with pig meat, frozen in particular, recording the sharpest rise due to the surge in import demand by China. Poultry, ovine and bovine meat prices strengthened, also supported by stronger Asian demand.
Meat Market Review - Overview of global meat market developments, March 2019
22/03/2019
Global meat output in 2018 is estimated at 336.4 million tonnes, up 1.2 percent from 2017, principally originated in the United States, the EU, and the Russian Federation, but partially offset by a decline in China and stagnation in Brazil, two of the world’s largest meat producers. Meat output volumes expanded in all major regions in the world, especially in Europe and North America. Productivity improvements, as countries introduced better management practices, more streamlined production systems and new technology, were largely behind the output expansion. Moreover, droughts in some parts of the world, including in the United States in the first half of the year, in the EU during the summer months, and Australia almost throughout the year, led to higher animal slaughter. Across the various meat sub-sectors, bovine meat output (refer to meat derived from ruminant mammals including cows, ox and buffalos) registered the highest expansion (+2.1 percent), followed by poultry meat (+1.3 percent), but remained stable for ovine meat (meat derived from sheep and goats) (+0.6 percent) and pigmeat (+0.6 percent). World meat exports in 2018 is estimated at 33.8 million tonnes, up 2.9 percent from 2017, principally driven by increased shipments from the United States, Australia, Argentina and the EU, but retreated in India, China and Brazil. China, the world’s largest meat importer, increased its purchases significantly, as consumer demand for meat continued to rise amid a contraction in pigmeat output, partly due to the onset of the African swine fever. Elsewhere, imports increased in the Republic of Korea, and Viet Nam, while the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia and the United States have cut back on imports. Across meat categories, world meat exports expanded at faster rates for ovine (+9.4 percent) and bovine (+6.1 percent) than for pigmeat (+1.6 percent) and poultry (+1.0 percent). The annual average value of world meat prices in 2018, measured by the FAO Meat Price Index, was 2.2 percent lower than in 2017, reflecting the declines in prices of pig (-8.1 percent) and poultry (-4.8 percent) meats and stability of bovine meat prices (+0.2 percent). Ovine meat prices increased by as much as 17 percent, but did not affect the average index value significantly because of its low weightage in the index. The spread of the African Swine Fever (ASF) and associated import restrictions weighed on international pigmeat price quotations while generally sluggish poultry import demand caused its prices to weaken. Abundant export supplies and robust demand from across the world characterized the global bovine market, keeping its prices stable. Price strength of ovine meat during the whole year was a result of strong import demand, combined with limited supplies from Oceania.
Meat Market Review: October 2018
22/10/2018
Global meat output is forecast to hover around 335 million tonnes in 2018, up 1.5 percent from 2017, the fastest pace of growth since 2014. The regained momentum coincides with expectations of a strong recovery of the meat sector in China, after three years of contraction, and of sizeable increases in the United States and the EU. At the regional level, the outlook is generally positive, with all regions expected to produce more meat this year. World meat exports in 2018 are forecast to set a new record of 33.6 million tonnes, up 2.6 percent from 2017. This comes in the wake of a continued increase in shipments from the United States amid a retreat by India, Brazil and South Africa. Australia, Argentina, Thailand and the EU are also expected to expand exports. Amid changes in production, consumer demand and policies, meat imports are likely to rise in some major importing countries, in particular China, Japan, Mexico and the Republic of Korea, while they may fall in the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Singapore. Import demand is rising faster for bovine and ovine meat than for pigmeat and poultry. The FAO Meat Price Index reached 166.2 points in September, stable compared to January 2018, but 4.5 percent below the corresponding month in 2017. Since January 2018, international prices of bovine meat have weakened by 3.8 percent, reflecting the availability of ample export supplies.
Meat Market Review: April 2018
25/04/2018
World meat output, comprising bovine, pig, poultry and ovine meat, is estimated at 330 million tonnes in 2017, an increase of 1 percent from 2016. Among the main meat producing countries, total meat output expanded in the United States (+2.8%), Brazil (+2.1%), the Russian Federation (+4%), Argentina (+4.8%), Mexico (+3.5%), India (+2.7); stagnated in China and the EU; but declined in South Africa (-2.5%). Across the main meat categories, poultry meat output - the most widely produced meat reached 120.5 million tonnes in 2017, up 1.1 percent from 2016; followed by pig meat (118.7 million tonnes, +0.7%); bovine meat (70.8 million tonnes, +1.5%); and ovine meat (14.9 million tonnes, +1.3%). World meat exports in 2017 reached 32.7 million tonnes, 2.7 percent higher than in 2016. Meat exports increased especially in the United States (+5.6%), Turkey (+36.3%), Argentina (+22%) and Thailand (+8.8%), but declined in the EU (-3.4%), Chile (-9.5%), South Africa (-8.3%). Meat imports expanded mainly in Japan (+9.4), the Russian Federation (+10.4%), Viet Nam (+7.7%) and Angola (+25.3%), but declined in China (-6.3%), Saudi Arabia (-11%), the EU (-4.2%) and Canada (-1.8%). Across the main meat categories, in 2017 world trade expanded in bovine, poultry and ovine meat, but pig meat trade declined. With this development, poultry meat has become the most widely produced and internationally traded meat type in the world. The average international meat price increased by nearly 9 percent in 2017 over 2016. Meat export prices increased moderately from January to June 2017 but began levelling off afterwards and eased eventually. Strong import demand underpinned moderate price increases in the first half of the year, but between July and December, sluggish import demand and rises in export availabilities weighed on meat prices. Meat price increases in the first half of the year resulted in the average annual price for the whole year to exceed that of 2016. Across the meat categories, the average international price in 2017 for ovine meat rose by 25.6 percent, pig meat by 9.8 percent, poultry meat by 8.4 percent and bovine meat by 6.3 percent. Ovine meat prices rose due to strong import demand that outpaced export supplies from Oceania. Global markets for bovine, pig and poultry meat were well supplied, especially in the second half of the year
Food Outlook - October 2002
02/10/2002
The global supply and demand balance for cereals is pointing to a tighter situation in 2002/03 than was anticipated earlier in the wake of deteriorating crop prospects in a number of major producing countries. Based on the production and consumption forecasts for 2002/03, world cereal stocks for crop years ending in 2003 are expected to plunge sharply. The humanitarian crisis in southern Africa is deepening as international response has so far seriously fallen short of needs. Globally, 32 countries are presently facing food emergencies and need food assistance. FAO’s forecast of global cereal output in 2002 has been revised downward to 1 830 million tonnes, 3 percent down from last year and the smallest crop since 1995. On latest indications, output of wheat is forecast at 563 million tonnes, down 3 percent, that of coarse grains at 874 million tonnes would be down by close to 4 percent, while rice production, at 394 million tonnes (milled basis), would be down by 1.4 percent. World cereal trade (exports) in 2002/03 is forecast at 236 million tonnes, which would be some 4 million tonnes below the previous season’s record volume. The expected decline is exclusively on account of a sharp contraction expected in world wheat trade, while trade in coarse grains and rice is expected to rise. World cereal utilization is forecast at 1 940 million tonnes in 2002/03, which would represent a negligible growth from the previous year, and stand about 10 percent, below the 10-year trend. World cereal stocks by the end of the crop seasons ending in 2003 are forecast to fall sharply to 466 million tonnes, 108 million tonnes down from their already reduced opening level. Apart from poor crops in several important producing countries, the continuing policy of significant stock reductions in China, would still account for a large proportion of the total anticipated decline in stocks at the global level. International wheat and coarse grain prices have increased in recent months, fuelled by growing evidence of tighter exportable grain supplies in traditional grain exporting countries. By contrast, for rice, large supplies in major exporting countries are keeping prices under pressure. FOOD AND AGRICULTUR
Food Outlook - July 2002
02/07/2002
The new 2002/03 marketing season could mark the beginning of a much tighter supply and demand situation for cereals: opening stocks are smaller than in the previous season, production is forecast to fall and consumption is expected to rise. A total of 31 countries throughout the world are currently experiencing severe food shortages and require international food assistance. A new food crisis has emerged in southern Africa, following two successive years of poor harvests in most countries of the subregion, calling for immediate international response. FAO’s forecast of global cereal output in 2002 has been revised downward to 1 878 million tones, considerably less than expectations in May, and marginally below last year’s level. On latest indications, output of wheat is forecast at 578 million tonnes, down 0.6 percent, while that of coarse grains would be down 0.3 percent at 903 million tones. Production of rice is seen to remain virtually unchanged from the previous year, at 397 million tonnes (milled basis). World cereal trade in 2002/03 is forecast at 235 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from 2001/02, mostly due to smaller wheat and rice imports, while trade in coarse grains is expected to increase slightly. A sharp reduction in imports by the developed countries would be almost offset by a large increase for the developing countries. World cereal utilization is forecast to reach 1 938 million tones in 2001/02, 1.4 percent up from the previous year’s level. Early indications for 2002/03 indicate that the growth in cereal utilization could continue but at a slower pace. World cereal stocks by the end of the crop seasons in 2003 are forecast to fall sharply to 498 million tonnes, 71 million tonnes down from their already reduced opening level. At the global level, the anticipated decline in wheat inventories would be most significant but reductions in coarse grains and rice stocks are also expected to be substantial. International cereal prices moved up in the past two months. Wheat prices rose considerably in response to poorer crop prospects in a number of major exporting countries. Maize prices have also strengthened, largely reflecting faster pace in import purchases in recent weeks. Rice prices rose slightly, reflecting tighter supplies in some exporting countries and policy measures in others.
Food Outlook - May 2002
03/05/2002
FAO’s first forecasts for cereal production in 2002 and utilization in 2002/03 indicate that output will remain below the expected level of utilization and stocks will have to be drawn down again in 2003 for the fourth consecutive year. However, supplies are expected to remain ample, particularly of wheat and coarse grains. Despite a generally favourable global food outlook, some 34 countries around the world are experiencing food shortages. The emerging situation in southern Africa gives particular cause for concern. World cereal output in 2002 is forecast at 1 905 million tonnes (including rice in milled equivalent), up 1.1 percent from 2001. Output of wheat is forecast at 603 million tonnes, up 3.7 percent, while that of coarse grains is seen to rise marginally to 910 million tonnes. By contrast, production of rice is tentatively forecast at 392 million tonnes (milled basis), down 1.1 percent from 2001. FAO’s first forecast of world cereal trade in 2002/03 is 236 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes down from the estimated volume in 2001/02. Global imports of wheat are forecast to decline in the 2002/03 July/June trade year while those of coarse grains are expected to increase. Rice trade in 2003 is tentatively forecast to decrease. International wheat and coarse grain prices remain under downward pressure, on the basis of large exportable supplies and generally favourable production prospects. By contrast, rice prices have held steady notwithstanding the arrival of new crop supply on the market. Meat supplies on international markets are expected to rebound in 2002 as animal disease restrictions are lifted for previously afflicted meat exporting countries. A return to normal consumption patterns should favour increased trade, but large supplies of all meats are expected to dampen any significant upward price movement. International prices for dairy products have fallen substantially since mid-2001, with the result that prices for most dairy products are currently at levels rarely seen over the past decade. It would appear that the decline has bottomed out and that prices for some dairy products may rise during the second-half of the year. Growth in global output of oils and fats is forecast to slow down in 2001/02, but could increase for oilcakes and meals. While international prices for oils and fats are expected to recover further from the previous season, the oilcakes and meals sector could suffer downward price pressure as supplies increase relatively more than demand. World pulse production is forecast to grow strongly in 2002, and trade could also increase, but prices will likely decline as exportable supplies are expected to be large. Sugar production is forecast to increase again in 2002/03, signaling another season of excess supply and potentially weaker prices.
Food Outlook - February 2002
04/02/2002
Global cereal output in 2001 is provisionally estimated at 1 880 million tonnes (including rice in milled terms), slightly up from the forecast in December and 1.2 percent up on the previous year. However, with global cereal utilization in 2001/02 still forecast to be well above this level at 1 935 million tonnes, the global cereal stocks will be drawn down significantly.
Food Outlook - December 2001
03/12/2001
Latest information indicates a slightly larger global cereal output in 2001, of 1 870 million tonnes (including rice in milled terms). However, even at this level, production would still be less than the anticipated utilization requirements in 2001/02, leading to a significant draw-down of cereal stocks. While Afghanistan currently faces a grave food supply situation, food emergencies persist in many other countries. World cereal trade in 2001/02 is forecast at 233 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous season’s estimated volume. Stronger demand for wheat and rice would be offset by a reduction in coarse grain trade. International prices for most cereals have changed little since September. Wheat prices have fallen below the previous year’s levels, reflecting relatively large export supplies and slack import demand. Large maize inventories, on top of abundant supplies of feed wheat, continue to weigh on feed grain prices, while new rice crop supplies on the market have kept international rice prices under pressure in the past three months. Total cereal food aid in 2001/02 (July/June) could increase by 1 million tonnes, to 9.5 million tonnes (in grain equivalent), after a sharp drop in the previous season. Latest information puts total shipments in 2000/01 at 8.5 million tonnes, 24 percent smaller than in 1999/2000. Cereal import bills could rise in 2001/02. Should the current forecasts for cereal trade, food aid and prices for 2001/02 materialize, the more vulnerable and food deficit regions could face larger cereal import bills this season than in 2000/01. Global milk output in 2001 is forecast at 585 million tonnes, up 2 percent from the previous year. Although the international dairy market was well-balanced up until mid2001, prices of dairy products have weakened somewhat in recent months due to reduced import demand. Global sugar demand in 2001 is currently forecast to reach 130.7 million tonnes, up by about 2 million tonnes from the previous year, and overtaking annual production, now forecast at 129.4 million tonnes, for the first time in seven years. Although early indications point to a production deficit also in 2002, adequate global stocks are expected to ensure continued market stability throughout 2002.
Food Outlook - June 2001
04/06/2001
World cereal stocks will be drawn down again in 2001/02. Although latest indications continue to point to a larger cereal crop in 2001, output would be insufficient to meet global utilization for the third year in succession, leading to a further reduction in cereal stocks by the conclusion of crop seasons ending in 2002. World cereal output in 2001 is forecast at 1 878 million tonnes, (including rice in milled terms), 1.3 percent above 2000. Output of wheat is forecast at 577 million tonnes, 1.6 percent below last year, while that of coarse grains is seen to rise by about 4 percent to 905 million tonnes. Production of rice is tentatively forecast at 396 million tonnes (milled basis), marginally down from 2000. Food emergencies of varying intensity persist for over 60 million people worldwide as a result of natural and man-made disasters. FAO’s first forecast of world cereal trade in 2001/02 is 229 million tonnes, about 4 million tonnes below the estimated volume in 2000/01. Global imports of wheat and coarse grains are forecast to be smaller while rice trade in 2002 is tentatively expected to increase marginally from the current year’s level. International wheat prices made further gains over the past two months, and remain significantly above those in the corresponding period of the previous season. However, coarse grains and rice prices have fallen well below the levels prevailing at the same time last year. Global cassava production and trade rose moderately in 2000, but prices fell to a new record low. The outlook for 2001 points to a contraction in output, reflecting poor prospects for Africa and Asia. Weak import demand by the EC might also depress the volume of trade and prices. International prices for oils/fats and oilmeals remain depressed, despite an increase in demand since the beginning of the 2000/01 (October/September) season. The market continues to be dominated by conditions of over-supply. International meat prices have strengthened during the first quarter of 2001, largely in response to a slow-down in output growth and market closures linked to disease outbreaks in several parts of the globe. International prices for dairy products in the first four months of 2001 were higher than the average for 2000, illustrating generally favourable international demand coupled with limited export availability. International sugar prices have strengthened in recent months in response to reduced global production prospects coupled with increased import demand.
Food Outlook - February 2001
05/02/2001
World cereal output in 2000 is provisionally estimated at 1 852 million tonnes, up slightly from the forecast in November. The forecast for global cereal utilization has also been adjusted upward to 1 909 million tonnes. The shortfall in production will have to be met by a significant drawdown of global cereal stocks. The estimates of cereal stocks in China (Mainland) have been revised substantially upward for all years beginning in 1980, leading to significantly higher figures for global stocks than were reported previously. However, the revisions, although large in absolute terms, only represent statistical adjustments in the historical supply and consumption series in China and, therefore, have negligible or no impact on the market fundamentals. Latest information indicates that over 60 million people face food emergencies throughout the world due to natural hazards and man-made disasters. World cereal trade in 2000/01 (July/June) is now forecast at 236 million tonnes, some 2 million tonnes less than was reported in November but slightly higher than the previous year’s volume. Most of the increase is expected to be derived from larger import demand for coarse grains. International wheat and coarse grains prices made small gains since November, but rice prices were generally lower. Large supplies in exporting countries continue to weigh on cereal markets. Prices of oilseeds and products are forecast to continue moving in opposite directions in 2000/01. While anticipated ample supplies of oils and fats, relative to demand, will likely limit the chances for a sustained recovery in prices for oils/fats, for oilseeds, oilcakes and meals, the tightening supply/demand situation could result in further price recovery. Trade in oilseed products is expected to expand further, but at a lower rate than in the last two seasons. The growth in global meat output slowed in 2000, mostly in response to smaller production in developed countries. Influenced by market disruptions caused by outbreaks in animal disease in major exporting countries, world meat trade grew at less than 2 percent. International trade prospects for 2001, while expected to expand, are likely to be influenced by continuing BSE concerns, a factor which could also weigh on beef prices during 2001.