Latest publications
Book (series)
Food Outlook – Biannual Report on Global Food Markets - November 2024
14/11/2024
FAO’s latest assessments indicate differing trajectories across different commodities, with wheat, maize, and sugar production set to decline, while...
Book (series)
Wheat (Market summary)
14/11/2024
This report provides an analysis of the most recent developments in the global wheat market, including a short-term outlook.
Book (series)
Milk and milk products (Market summary)
14/11/2024
This report provides an analysis of the most recent developments in the global milk market, including a short-term outlook
Book (series)
Oilcrops, oils and meals (Market summary)
14/11/2024
This report provides an analysis of the most recent developments in the global oilcrops market, including a short-term outlook.
Publications
Food Outlook - November 2012
05/11/2012
Food prices have averaged 8 percent lower during the first ten months of 2012 compared to the same period last year. Considerably lower international prices and freights, together with less cereal purchases are predicted to reduce global expenditures on imported foodstuffs. The 2012 forecast for global food import bills is set at USD 1.14 trillion, 10 percent lower than the record which was set last year.
Food Outlook - May 2012
02/05/2012
Global food prices seem to have stabilized at a relatively high level of around 214 points as measured by the FAO Food Price Index. Although the outlook for the second half of this year and into the next indicates generally improved supplies, demand remains strong and the global food import bill in 2012 is expected to fall only slightly from the 2011 record.
Food Outlook - November 2011
03/11/2011
In spite of improved supply prospects and weakening demand, agricultural commodity market conditions remain fairly tight, which is the major factor underpinning prices. Production forecasts for nearly all key food crops in 2011 have risen steadily since the previous report in June. For cereals, while the forecast for ending stocks in 2012 has also been revised up significantly, larger anticipated inventories reflect not only improved production prospects but also expectations of a slowing demand growth because of the unfavourable macroeconomic environment. In spite of these developments, however, international prices of all commodities covered in this report continue to be high and, in most cases, above the previous year. Strong underlying demand in certain countries, where economic growth is robust, is price supportive. Aside from being high, most prices are also extremely volatile, moving in tandem with unstable financial and equity markets. Fluctuations in exchange rates and uncertainties in energy markets are also contributing to sharp price swings in agricultural markets.
Food Outlook - June 2011
01/06/2011
Halfway into this turbulent year and with new marketing seasons for major food crops commencing soon, this is a critical time to evaluate current developments in global food markets and to draw the early outlook for 2011/12. In a remarkable turn of events, earlier prospects for more comfortable supply situations and stable prices gave way to increasingly worrisome outlooks and to an escalation of international prices to levels not seen in decades. In fact, the FAO food price index in May stood at a near historical high of 232 points, down only 6 points from the February record. While unfavourable weather was the main culprit, a host of other unpredictable factors negatively impacted stability in the food markets, including the catastrophe in Japan, an unprecedented wave of political unrests engulfing many countries in North Africa and the Near East, another strong increase in oil prices, prolonged uncertainty in financial markets and in the global economy.
Food Outlook - November 2010
03/11/2010
International prices of most agricultural commodities have increased in recent months, some sharply. The FAO Food Price index has gained 34 points since the previous Food Outlook report in June, averaging 197 points in October, only 16 points short from its peak in June 2008. The upward movements of prices were connected with several factors, the most important of which were a worsening of the outlook for crops in key producing countries, which is likely to require large draw downs of stocks and result in tighter global supply and demand balances in 2010/11. Another leading factor has been the weakening of the United States Dollar (US Dollar) from mid-September, which continues to sustain the prices of nearly all agricultural and non-agricultural traded commodities. The increase in international prices of food commodities, all of which accruing in the second half of 2010, is boosting the overall food import bill in 2010 closer to the peak reached in 2008.
Food Outlook - June 2010
03/06/2010
As this report goes to print, concerns over macroeconomic prospects and global financial markets are once more gaining the headlines. Changes in the economic environment, including continuing fluctuations in exchange rates and high unpredictability have a strong influence on agricultural commodity markets. From the supply side, however, the 2008-2009 price boom spurred plantings and production of many food crops, resulting in a recovery in inventories and boosting stocks-to-use ratios, a tendency likely to prevail also in 2010/11. In fact, from sugar to wheat, most indicators point to increasing world supplies, a leading factor behind the sharp declines in international prices of major food staples this year.
Food Outlook - December 2009
02/12/2009
Recent developments in world agricultural markets for basic food commodities have raised concern about a possible return to another round of high prices. In general, however, the difficulties facing markets today are different from those experienced during the 2007/08 food price surge. The FAO Food Price Index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a food basket composed of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar, has risen uninterruptedly since August 2009, a trend shared by nearly all its components. In November the index averaged 168 points, the highest since September 2008, although still 21 percent below its peak in June 2008. Prior to the price spike of 2007/08, the index never exceeded 120 points and, for most of the time, was below 100 points.
Food Outlook - June 2009
03/06/2009
In spite of strong gains in recent weeks, international prices of most agricultural commodities have fallen in 2009 from their 2008 heights, an indication that many markets are slowly returning into balance, in sharp contrast to what was witnessed this time last year. The apparent easing of market conditions is reflected in the benchmark FAO Food Price Index, which has fallen by one-third from last June’s peak.
Food Outlook - November 2008
03/11/2008
The previous (June 2008) issue of Food Outlook foresaw world prices of major agricultural commodities declining from the record levels they had just reached, amidst favourable prospects for global supplies. Since then, prices have indeed fallen, but farther and faster than can be explained through production gains alone. Underlying the price slide, in excess of 50 percent from their recent peaks, are other important factors, including the financial crisis, the halving of world crude oil prices and the appreciation of the US Dollar. And uncertainty is emerging as a dominant feature of world agricultural markets, as many of them are entering or about to enter a new season.
Food Outlook - June 2008
03/06/2008
All agricultural commodities covered in this report are of critical importance to global food and feed markets. They constitute much of the world’s food consumption, generate income to farmers and represent the largest portion of food import expenditures across the world. The analysis in the report puts in perspective market developments in recent months with a view to providing some insights into how the outlook might unfold for the commodities covered during the coming months.
Food Outlook - November 2007
05/11/2007
Agricultural commodity prices rose sharply in 2006 and, in some cases, are soaring at an even faster pace this year. The FAO food price index rose by 9 percent in 2006 compared to the previous year. In September 2007 it stood at 172 points, representing a year-on-year jump in value of roughly 37 percent. The surge in prices has been led primarily by dairy and grains, but prices of other commodities, with the exception of sugar, have also increased significantly.
Food Outlook - June 2007
04/06/2007
Based on FAO’s latest analysis, global expenditures on imported foodstuffs look set to surpass US$400 billion in 2007, almost 5 percent above the record of the previous year. The bulk of the increase can be levelled against rising prices of imported coarse grains and vegetable oils, the commodity groups which feature most heavily in biofuel production. Import bills for these commodities are forecast to rise by as much as 13 percent from 2006. More expensive feed ingredients will lead to higher prices for meat and dairy products, raising the expenditures on imports of those commodities. In several cases, such as meat and rice, the import bills are likely to be driven higher also because of larger world purchases. On the other hand, in the case of sugar, generally high and volatile prices could lead to smaller import volumes, the net effect of which is likely to be a drop in the cost of global sugar imports. The rise of international freight rates to new highs also affected the import value of all commodities, putting additional pressure on countries’ ability to cover their food import bills.
Food Outlook - December 2006
04/12/2006
As 2006 draws to an end, the most prominent feature of the food and feed markets in 2006 has been the surge in the prices of cereals, in particular wheat and maize, which, by November, had reached levels not seen for a decade. Poor harvests in key producing countries and a fast growing demand for biofuel production have been the main drivers of the grain markets. Supply constraints also have dominated the rice economy.
Food Outlook - June 2006
05/06/2006
The recent months saw commodity markets as a whole becoming more volatile with a steady upward trend in prices. In agricultural markets, some important food and feed commodities gained on supply tightness and stronger demand while in the energy complex and metals, the tighter supply and demand balance resulted in a steep increase in prices. Amid political uncertainties and surging energy prices, agricultural markets over the past year have also had to confront abnormal incidences of natural disasters, ranging from devastating hurricanes to fast spreading animal diseases.
Food Outlook - December 2005
05/12/2005
FAO latest forecast for the 2005 world cereal output has been raised considerably since the September report to 2 005 million tonnes, 2.4 percent lower than last year’s record crop. Cereal crops have been satisfactory in most regions, except parts of Africa and South America. Planting of the 2006 cereal crop is underway in the main producing regions under generally favourable conditions so far. However, prospects are uncertain in Southern Africa and South America. Global cereal utilization is forecast to rise in 2005/06, with an expected increase in food consumption leading to some gains in the average per capita consumption in developing countries. By contrast, feed use of cereals is expected to decline. World cereal stocks are forecast to decrease, mostly reflecting smaller coarse grains inventory as a result of lower production this year. Cereal trade is expected to contract in 2005/06 following improved production in several major importing countries, mainly in Asia. International prices of cereals are generally higher than a year ago. Export prices have increased sharply in Argentina, reflecting reduced wheat production, and in South Africa as a result of high regional demand for maize. World milk output is expected to grow in 2005, but supplies from traditional exporters remain tight. International trade prices have stabilized at high levels supported by firm demand, particularly in Asia and North Africa. International prices of oilseeds have weakened in recent months following a substantial increase in production in 2004/05 (October/September), which has resulted in record oilseed carryover stocks. Global sugar production is forecast to rise in 2005 but sustained demand in developing countries will likely keep the global supply tight. International sugar prices remain firm. International banana prices have increased reflecting the impact of adverse weather in Latin America. In late November, the EU adopted a tariff-only system for banana imports due to start in January 2006. Any further extensive spread of avian flu could seriously disrupt global poultry and feed markets.
Food Outlook - September 2005
03/10/2005
FAO’s forecast of the 2005 world cereal output has been revised slightly downward since the previous report in June. Although lower than the record of 2004, the global cereal crop is still expected to be above the average of the past five years. Output of wheat and coarse grains is set to decline but that of rice is forecast to reach a record high. Most of the anticipated decrease in global cereal output in 2005 is in the developed countries, mainly reflecting smaller coarse grain crops. In developing countries, cereal production is expected marginally up from the good level of 2004. At the forecast level, global cereal production would not be sufficient to cover expected utilization in marketing year 2005/06, pointing to a larger drawdown in global cereal stocks than earlier anticipated. Contrary to earlier expectations, cereal inventories held by the major exporting countries are also forecast to decline. However, in the case of wheat and coarse grains, their share of the global totals would remain around the high levels of the previous season. FAO’s latest forecast of the world cereal trade in 2005/06 indicates a decline from the 2004/05 volume, mainly reflecting good crops in some of the main importing countries. Cereal food consumption in 2005/06 in developing countries is likely to keep pace with population growth, so the average per caput intake remains unchanged from 2004/05. Export prices of cereals have increased in the past months and are mostly somewhat above the levels of a year earlier. Despite recent outbreaks of Avian Influenza (AI) extending westwards from Asia into Europe, international meat prices have been rising since the beginning of 2005 supported by a strong recovery in meat consumption from the previous wave of disruption caused by animal disease in 2004. International coffee prices declined in recent months after having increased steadily in the past year. However, they are still well above their levels of a year ago. Import prices of banana picked-up in the first half of September in the United States. Negotiations on the rebinding of the EU tariff-quota system for banana imports continue under the WTO arbitration. Ocean freight rates that declined during the first half of 2005 have increased sharply since late August.
Food Outlook - June 2005
03/06/2005
Prospects for the 2005 global cereal crop remain favourable. Latest production forecasts indicate a decline from the record output of 2004 but not as large as anticipated earlier. FAO’s first forecast of world cereal trade in the 2005/06 marketing season points to a slight decrease from the revised 2004/05 level, mainly due to lower wheat import demand. Global cereal utilization is expected to increase somewhat in 2005/06, which coupled with the forecast decrease in production will result in a drawdown in global cereal stocks after a substantial build-up in 2004/05. However, stocks held by major exporting countries are anticipated to increase. Prices of cereals remain well below their levels of a year earlier. This mainly reflects large exportable supplies of wheat and coarse grains and for rice, seasonal downward pressure from the 2004 secondary crops harvests. World milk output is forecast to grow in 2005, mainly in developing countries, but prices remain high due to lower supplies from major exporting countries. A record 2004/05 oilcrop harvest is limiting the potential for increases in prices for oilseeds and meals, while prices for oils and fats are expected to remain firm due to strong demand and below average stock levels. Another good world pulse crop is expected in 2005, although somewhat lower than last year’s bumper harvest. World sugar production is forecast to expand in 2004/05 but to fall short of growing consumption. As a result, prices of sugar remain at high levels. Coffee prices that started to recover in late 2004 surged in the first quarter of 2005 and by late May were almost 60 percent higher than a year ago. Prices of fertilizers have continued to increase in the past months. Urea quotations by late May were between 74 and 90 percent above the corresponding period last year.
Food Outlook - April 2005
04/04/2005
Another good world cereal crop is forecast in 2005, although lower than the exceptional harvest in 2004. Dry weather in several Asian countries since late last year has negatively impacted the 2004 secondary paddy crop season, which is nearing its conclusion. Nevertheless, the 2004 aggregate rice production is still estimated to be the second highest on record. World cereal stocks at the end of crop seasons ending in 2005 are expected to be almost 10 percent higher than their opening levels. International prices of rice have increased following concerns about the secondary paddy season. By contrast, prices for wheat and coarse grains remain below last year reflecting large availabilities in the major exporting countries, generally favourable prospects for the 2005 crops and relatively slack demand. The forecast for global cereal trade in 2004/05 has been revised up since the previous report, mainly on account of higher wheat imports. Meat trade in 2005 is expected to recover from the exceptional decline in 2004 but market uncertainties persist, mainly over food safety concerns. World banana and sugar prices recovered in 2004, mainly reflecting sustained import demand.
Food Outlook - December 2004
03/12/2004
World cereal output in 2004 is estimated by FAO at a record 2 042 million tonnes, substantially more than the forecast in September and 8.4 percent up from 2003. Cereal production is forecast to exceed utilization in 2004/05, which would lead to an increase in stocks for the first time in five years. World cereal utilization in 2004/05 is forecast to rise by 2.4 percent from the previous season. Most of the increase is expected in feed usage of cereals, reflecting larger availabilities. World cereal stocks are forecast to rise to 441 million tonnes by the close of the 2004/05 seasons. The bulk of the increase will be in maize and wheat reserves in the major exporting countries. By contrast, rice inventories are expected to decline again. International wheat and coarse grains prices are generally lower than a year ago, but those for rice remain well above levels in 2003. Global cereal trade is forecast to decline in 2004/05, mostly reflecting reduced demand in the EU, which would more than offset an expected increase in imports by developing countries, China in particular. Global meat prices stabilized somewhat in late 2004, as import bans were lifted from previously disease afflicted areas and exportable supplies subsequently increased. Meat production and trade should continue to grow in 2005. International prices for dairy products rose throughout 2004, and by November, the FAO dairy price index reached its highest level since 1990. Upward price pressure is largely the result of growing international demand, especially for whole milk powder in developing countries. Oilseed prices attained record levels in the previous marketing season, but have fallen significantly since April, due mainly to a large crop in the United States. Firm sugar prices prevail on international markets, reflecting continuing strong growth in world sugar consumption, relative to output.
Food Outlook - September 2004
03/09/2004
FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal output in 2004 has been raised by 29 million tonnes since the previous report to 1 985 million tonnes, which puts it on par with the expected utilization in 2004/05. This will avert the need for another major drawdown in global cereal stocks after sharp declines in the past four years. World cereal utilization in 2004/05 is forecast at 1 985 million tonnes, 1.4 percent above the estimated utilization in 2003/04. Feed and industrial usage of coarse grains is likely to grow fastest. FAO’s forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of the seasons in 2005 has been raised significantly to just slightly below their opening level, after much sharper drops in each of the past four years. Desert Locust infestations are posing a threat to agricultural production in the Sahel this year. Widespread breeding and formation of swarms is reported throughout the Sahelian zone. Significant crop damage is already reported in some countries. Control operations are underway but need strengthening to prevent the situation from worsening. Global cereal trade is set to decline sharply in 2004/05 to 227.6 million tonnes, mostly reflecting reduced import demand for wheat and coarse grains because of good crops in several traditional importing countries. International cereal prices weakened in recent months, mostly due to favourable supply prospects and generally weaker demand. High sugar prices prevail on international markets, reflecting continuing strong growth in world sugar consumption, relative to output, and an anticipated fall in stocks worldwide.