Food Outlook - February 2000
03/02/2000
FAO now estimates world cereal output in 1999 at 1 872 million tonnes, (including rice in milled terms), above average, and only slightly below the previous year’s level. However, this would be below anticipated global cereal utilization in 1999/2000 and, as a result, global cereal stocks will have to be drawn down for the first time in 4 years. The early outlook for 2000 cereal crops is mixed. In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat plantings fell in the United States, but the spring wheat area in Canada could rise. In Europe, the winter wheat area expanded in the EC and in several eastern European countries. In the southern hemisphere, prospects are favourable for the 2000 coarse grains crops in southern Africa and South America. In the equatorial belt and the southern hemisphere the harvest of the 2000 rice crop will start soon but plantings were reduced and output will be down. Food emergencies persist in many countries throughout the world due to frequent natural hazards and, increasingly, by man-made disasters. FAO latest forecast of world trade in cereals in 1999/2000 is 222 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes more than earlier anticipated, and 7 million tonnes up from the previous year. Latest indications point to an increase of about 6 percent in global wheat shipments and 3 percent for coarse grains, but a 4 percent reduction for rice. International export prices for most cereals strengthened in recent weeks. Latest indications of a tighter than expected cereal balance in the United States lent significant support to wheat and coarse grains markets in January, while some unexpected buying activity helped the FAO Rice Export Price Index gain one point from its December low. Global meat output grew 2 percent in 1999 buoyed by low feed prices. World trade in meat also grew, surging by 5 percent, mostly as a result of recovering Asian demand and increasing use of export programmes. This expansion is unlikely to be replicated in 2000 as red meat supplies are expected to contract. Prices of oilseed products are anticipated to recover in 1999/2000, in response to a tightening supply/demand situation. Oilseed production is expected to rise only marginally and overall output of oilcrop-based products is likely to fall short of demand. Regarding trade, a rise in shipments of oils and fats is expected to contrast with reduced growth in trade of oilcakes and meals.
Food Outlook - November 1999
03/11/1999
Latest information confirms another above-average cereal output in 1999, of 1 866 million tonnes (including rice in milled terms). However, at this level, production would be less than the anticipated consumption requirements in 1999/2000 and stocks, which have built-up over the past three years, would have to be drawn down. Food emergencies persist in many countries throughout the world, mainly due to the effects of natural disasters, civil strife and economic crises. Currently, 52 million people are estimated to be facing food shortages of varying intensity in 35 countries worldwide. World trade in cereals in 1999/2000 is forecast to increase by nearly 4 percent, to 221 million tonnes, 8 million tonnes up from the previous year. The bulk of the increase is expected in wheat and coarse grains, while rice imports are tentatively forecast to remain virtually unchanged. International cereal prices weakened further since September, mostly reflecting good harvest results. Prices for wheat and coarse grains remain below those a year ago, and the FAO Rice Export Price Index in October averaged the lowest level in the past five years. World cassava production and consumption are forecast to rise in 1999. Although international trade in cassava products is expected to recover partly from the slump in 1998, demand remains generally sluggish and world cassava prices have fallen to record low levels. International prices for dairy products may show a moderate increase during the remainder of 1999 and into 2000, as a result of limited stocks in the main exporting countries and sustained import demand. World sugar prices fell to a 13-year low in early 1999 reflecting abundant supplies, and the outlook is for continuing weak prices in the remainder of 1999. FAO tentatively forecasts global production will exceed consumption again in 1999/2000 for the sixth consecutive year, and stocks will rise further.
Food Outlook - September 1999
03/09/1999
The outlook for 1999 cereal production has improved slightly since June, due mainly to better crop prospects in Asia and North America. World production, however, will not be sufficient to meet anticipated consumption requirements and global stocks will need to be drawn down. Food emergencies persist throughout the world, mainly due to the effects of adverse weather, civil strife and chronic economic problems. Currently, 37 countries face food emergencies of varying degrees, with an increasing number of people requiring food assistance. Latest estimates put cereal food aid shipments in 1998/99 at 9.5 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes above last year and the highest level since 1993/94. FAO’s latest forecast for 1999 cereal production is 1 870 million tonnes, 0.7 percent below last year and 18 percent lower than the record output in 1997. Wheat production is put at 579 million tonnes, almost 3 percent down on last year, while coarse grain output is anticipated at around 899 million tonnes, some 7 million tonnes below last year’s crop. Global rice production is forecast at a record 585 million tonnes (392 million tonnes milled), 2 percent higher than last year. World trade in cereals in 1999/2000 is forecast to increase by 2 percent to 218 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes more than in the previous year. Global trade in wheat and coarse grains is expected to rise due mostly to higher demand in Asia. Trade in rice is expected to remain similar to last year, the second highest on record. International cereal prices remain mostly below the previous year, but wheat prices firmed up slightly in recent months, supported by increased trade activity. By contrast, coarse grains and rice prices in international markets fell, mostly in response to good crop prospects and weaker international demand, respectively. Prospects for trade and price recovery in the world meat market remain uncertain as the effects of the 1998 global financial crisis extend into 1999. Global production is forecast to increase 2 percent as feed prices remain low. Record 1998/99 production of oilcrops is confirmed by latest estimates, exceeding the expected increase in demand. Stocks of oilcrop products are likely to increase and prices to fall. World fish production recovered in 1999 due to high tuna and illex catches. With the phasing out of El Niño, the small pelagic fisheries in Chile and Peru are recovering. The prices of tuna and groundfish are anticipated to improve.
Food Outlook - June 1999
03/06/1999
Latest indications continue to point to a reduction in cereal output in 1999 and to a slight deterioration in the cereal supply outlook for the forthcoming 1999/2000 marketing season. If current forecasts materialize, cereal output in 1999 would not be sufficient to meet expected consumption requirements in 1999/2000 and global cereal reserves accumulated in the last three seasons will have to be drawn down. A major humanitarian emergency persists in Europe, where thousands of refugees have continued to flee from the Kosovo Province of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia over the past weeks. Elsewhere, serious food supply problems also persist in several countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. FAO’s latest forecast puts global cereal output in 1999 at 1 858 million tonnes, 1.3 percent below last year’s crop. Wheat output is forecast at 579 million tonnes, 2.6 percent down from 1998 and below trend, that of coarse grains at 891 million tonnes, 1.5 percent down from the previous year and also below trend. Global rice output is tentatively forecast to increase by 1.4 percent to 387 million tonnes (milled basis). FAO’s first forecast of world trade in cereals in 1999/2000 is 212 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes up from 1998/99. Global trade in wheat is expected to increase by about 5 percent to 100 million tonnes, and that for coarse grains by almost 2 percent, to 92 million tonnes. By contrast, for rice, reduced trade is anticipated in response to better production prospects among several major importing countries. International wheat and coarse grains prices weakened further since March, mostly reflecting continuing sluggish demand on international markets and generally satisfactory growing conditions for 1999 crops. International rice prices fell in April, but recoverd somewhat in May in response to increased import demand. Global production of pulses is expected to rise in 1999 to 58.5 million tonnes. World imports of pulses are also seen to rise, with larger shipments for direct food consumption more than offsetting reduced trade of feed beans. Prices for lentils and chickpeas are anticipated to be firm in 1999 but prospects for other pulses are mixed. FAO estimates world sugar production in 1998/99 at 129.6 million tonnes, 6.5 percent up from the previous season. At this level, output would be above demand for the fourth year in succession and stocks would rise further. Reflecting oversupply on international markets, sugar prices have continued to fall sharply this season.
Food Outlook - February 1999
04/02/1999
The outlook for cereal supplies in 1998/99 has improved slightly, following upward revisions for the 1998 wheat and coarse grains harvests. Global cereal production in 1998 is now estimated at 1 880 million tonnes, just below the anticipated consumption requirements in 1998/99.