Climate change caused Caucasus glaciers to retreat 600 metres, shrinking freshwater supplies – new UN report

Climate change is taking a toll on the six countries of the Caucasus, causing glaciers to shrink and impacting river flows, finds a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report launched ahead of the UNFCCC COP29.

Glaciers have already retreated by an average of 600 metres over the past century, while more than 11 billion tonnes of freshwater — previously stored in ice — has been lost since the year 2000, according to the second edition of the Caucasus Environment Outlook (CEO-2) report. The publication focuses on the ecoregion covering Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, as well as regions of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation and Türkiye. The new report includes 20 maps to visualize environmental trends.

Water is increasingly becoming an unevenly distributed resource - river flows in most countries are expected to drop 20 percent by 2100. In 2020, river flow already plummeted 26 percent in Armenia and by 20 percent in Azerbaijan. Between 2000 and 2020, annual flow at the closing section of the Kura river — which spans Türkiye, Georgia and Azerbaijan —fell 20 percent. Furthermore, groundwater withdrawals have doubled in Armenia since 2000 and shot up by 400 percent in Azerbaijan. With reduced snow and glacier cover in the mountains, the report’s authors expect freshwater supply to further substantially decrease in the coming decades, calling for innovative solutions and transboundary data sharing and monitoring.

Average temperatures in the region could rise by up to 3.6°C by the end of the century compared to the 1970–2000 baseline, under an IPCC upper-medium scenario, with the fastest warming seen in mountainous regions. Glacial melting already poses a severe flood hazard and raises the need for constant monitoring. Illustrating the impacts of climate change in the region, in August 2023, a devastating mudflow, triggered by intense rainfall and glacial melt, caused significant destruction and the loss of at least 24 lives in the village of Shovi, in the Racha region of Georgia.

Among its recommendations, the report’s authors state that climate change and adaptation measures should be integrated into policies and legislation, which requires strong political support. Urban planning should also take the environment into account to a greater extent, while transboundary water basin management plans should be drawn up, it stresses.

Unprecedented heatwaves

While increased heatwaves are foreseen across the region, the number and duration of extremely hot days and heatwaves during the summer months in Azerbaijan is already significant. For example, air temperatures reached at least 35°C and above in the country’s capital, Baku, on a total of 86 days during 1960–1990. This figure rose to 365 days in total during the 1991–2020 period.

Erosion, often caused by a combination of heavy rains, unsustainable land practices, and natural hazards, poses a further growing environmental threat and reduces arable land for rural livelihoods. For example, large proportions of land in Türkiye are under severe strain from erosion, with around 71 percent of agricultural lands and 59 percent of rangelands affected, the report finds.

Despite this, the potential exists for environmental strides to be made. For example, the report finds that an opportunity exists for governments and the private sector to ensure cost-efficient renewable energy greatly expands and serves as substitute for polluting energy sources over the next decade. Meanwhile, the protected land area in the Caucasus region has been increasing. For example, Azerbaijan protects over 9 percent of its territory, compared to under 4 percent just eight years ago, while just under 11 percent of Georgia is protected, rising from a little over 6 percent over the same period.

Furthermore, concrete and tested adaptation solutions, applying local traditions and cultures, such as revitalizing vineyards against soil erosion or improving grazing methods, exist across the Caucasus ecoregion — a term for an area with similar climate and natural features. Other pathways for adapting to climate change can be found in UNEP’s ADAPT: Solutions from the South Caucasus publication.

The publication was co-authored by more than 30 leading national and regional experts from the six countries, along with 40 international and national reviewers, and features insights from young and early-career scientists from the Caucasus.

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Written by UNEP