Featured publications
Journal; magazine; bulletin
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Triannual Global Report, No. 3, November 2024
08/11/2024
The triannual Crop Prospects and Food Situation report provides a forward-looking global analysis of cereal production, market trends and food security...
Book (stand-alone)
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Triannual Global Report, No. 2, July 2024
16/09/2024
The triannual Crop Prospects and Food Situation report provides a forward-looking analysis of the food situation across the globe, focusing on the cereal...
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Triannual Global Report, No. 1, March 2024
20/03/2024
The triannual Crop Prospects and Food Situation report provides a forward-looking analysis of the food situation across the globe, focusing on the cereal...
Book (stand-alone)
Crop Prospects and Food Situation
01/03/2024
This report is published three times a year (four times before 2023) and provides a forward-looking analysis of the food situation by geographic region,...
Publications
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #3, October 2014
09/10/2014
The forecast for global cereal production in 2014 has been raised closer to last year’s record, which is expected to boost inventories to a multi-year high. Export prices of wheat and maize decreased further in September to multiyear lows, driven by expectations of large global supplies in 2014/15. Even rice prices, which had been rising in previous months, fell in September.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation # 2, July 2014
10/07/2014
Prospects for 2014 global cereal production improve further with upward revisions to coarse grains and wheat forecasts, contributing to an enhanced cereal supply outlook for 2014/15. n International prices of wheat and maize dropped in June, reflecting favourable production prospects, while rice export quotations increased slightly. Cereal export prices were overall lower than their year earlier levels.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #1, March 2014
06/03/2014
FAO’s forecasts for global cereal production, consumption, trade and stocks in 2013/14 have all been raised since February, with overall supply conditions significantly improved compared to the previous season. Export prices of wheat rose in February mainly on concerns about the 2014 winter wheat crop in the United States. Prices of maize also increased, supported by strong domestic and export demand for feed and industrial use. Overall, however, cereal export prices remained below their year-earlier levels. Aggregate cereal imports in LIFDCs in 2013/14 are estimated at a nearrecord level mainly due to reduced harvests in Africa, overall stagnant domestic production and rising demand.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #4, December 2013
05/12/2013
Latest estimates confirm a large increase in 2013 world cereal output; early prospects for 2014 wheat crop are mostly favourable. The benchmark United States wheat export price declined in November on generally favourable 2014 crop prospects. Prices of maize and rice also eased somewhat and were at levels well below those of a year earlier. Cereal imports of LIFDCs for 2013/14 are estimated to increase by some 4 percent, mainly reflecting reduced harvests in Africa and increased demand in Egypt.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #3, October 2013
10/10/2013
The outlook for global cereal supply in the 2013/14 marketing season remains generally favourable despite downward adjustments to forecasts for world cereal production and closing stocks. Export prices of maize dropped further in September mainly reflecting the positive outlook for the 2013 global output. Wheat prices remained relatively stable, while those of rice declined from most origins. Aggregate cereal imports of LIFDCs during 2013/14 are estimated to increase by some 6 percent over the reduced imports of the year before.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2, July 2013
11/07/2013
World cereal production is forecast to increase by about 7 percent in 2013, helping to replenish global inventories and raise expectations for more stable markets in 2013/14. International prices of wheat declined slightly in June with the onset of the 2013 harvests in the Northern Hemisphere. By contrast, maize prices increased, supported by continued tight global supplies. Export prices of rice showed mixed trends. Cereal imports of LIFDCs for 2013/14 are estimated to rise by some 5 percent to meet growing demand; Egypt, Indonesia and Nigeria, in particular, are forecast to import more.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #1, March 2013
07/03/2013
FAO’s first forecast for world wheat production in 2013 stands at 690 million tonnes, about 28 million tonnes up from 2012 and the second largest crop on record. The increase is expected mostly in Europe, driven by an expansion in area in response to high prices, and in some countries due to an expected recovery in yields from last year’s below-average levels. The international cereal prices in recent months have followed mixed trends with rice prices rising and wheat declining, while maize prices remaining generally steady. Aggregate cereal import requirements of LIFDCs for 2012/13 are expected to decrease following generally bumper local harvests in 2012 and an overall favourable outlook in 2013.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #4, December 2012
06/12/2012
Firmer production estimates for 2012 confirm tightening wheat and maize supplies while the outlook for rice remains positive. In spite of a contraction in overall cereal utilization in 2012/13, the world cereal stock-to-use ratio is projected to decline by 2 percentage points from the previous season. International prices of all major cereals, except rice, remain well above last year. For wheat and maize, while prices have stabilized in recent weeks, unfavourable weather for 2013 crops in several important regions is a concern. Aggregate cereal production of LIFDCs in 2012 has been revised upwards following a recovery in Western Africa and increased output in the Far East. Consequently, reduced imports are expected in 2012/13.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #3, October 2012
11/10/2012
Latest indications confirm a decline in world cereal production in 2012 from the record in 2011. The decrease will result in a significant reduction in world inventories by the close of seasons in 2013, even with world demand sliding as a result of high prices. International cereal prices remained firm in September, with average wheat and rice quotations increasing slightly, but those of maize declining. Although the volume of aggregate cereal import requirements of LIFDCs in the 2012/13 marketing years are estimated to decline by 5 percent from the high level the previous year, the total import bill, on the other hand, is expected to rise due to higher international prices.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2, June 2012
07/06/2012
The outlook for world cereal production in 2012 improved further in recent weeks largely on expectation of a much bigger maize crop in the United States. World cereal production is now forecast to increase by 3.2 percent to a new record. At 2 419 million tonnes, global cereal production would exceed the anticipated utilization in 2012/13 and lead to a significant replenishment of world stocks, which could keep international prices under downward pressure. Wheat and coarse grains prices eased in May, mostly during the second half, driven by good supply prospects. Rice prices were supported by a temporary surge in import demand and large Government purchases in Thailand, the number one exporter of the commodity. Aggregate cereal imports of the 66 LIFDCs for 2012/13 are forecast to decrease slightly, mainly due to the generally favourable prospects for the 2012 domestic harvests.