Featured publications
Journal; magazine; bulletin
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Triannual Global Report, No. 3, November 2024
08/11/2024
The triannual Crop Prospects and Food Situation report provides a forward-looking global analysis of cereal production, market trends and food security...
Book (stand-alone)
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Triannual Global Report, No. 2, July 2024
16/09/2024
The triannual Crop Prospects and Food Situation report provides a forward-looking analysis of the food situation across the globe, focusing on the cereal...
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Triannual Global Report, No. 1, March 2024
20/03/2024
The triannual Crop Prospects and Food Situation report provides a forward-looking analysis of the food situation across the globe, focusing on the cereal...
Book (stand-alone)
Crop Prospects and Food Situation
01/03/2024
This report is published three times a year (four times before 2023) and provides a forward-looking analysis of the food situation by geographic region,...
Publications
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #1, March 2012
08/03/2012
FAO’s first forecast for world wheat production in 2012 stands at 690 million tonnes, 10 million tonnes less than last year’s record high, but still the second largest crop. Plantings remain high in response to favourable price prospects but yields are assumed to return to average after bumper levels last year in some countries. International prices of cereals firmed in recent weeks with tightening wheat supplies and concerns over the impact of severe cold weather in Europe and the CIS. Maize prices also rose, mainly driven by stronger import demand in Asia, supported by a weaker dollar as well as concerns about crop prospects in South America. Rice prices, however, remained under downward pressure on generally weak import demand and stiff competition among exporters. The cereal import bill of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) as a group is anticipated to increase in 2011/12 mainly due to a decline in production and rise in import requirements in the major importing countries.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #1, December 2011
08/12/2011
As the year draws to a close, FAO’s latest estimate confirms a record high global cereal production in 2011, which should be sufficient to cover the expected increase in utilization in 2011/12 and also allow a moderate replenishment of world reserves. International grain prices remained mostly under downward pressure in November, reflecting the confirmation of a strong recovery in production amid deteriorating world economic prospects and a stronger US dollar. Based on the estimated increase in import requirements, the cereal import bill of LIFDCs for 2011/12 marketing season is forecast by FAO at a record level.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #3, October 2011
06/10/2011
Prospects for global cereal production in 2011 have improved since September, following better expectations for rice and wheat. At the expected record level of 2 310 million tonnes, world cereal production would be 3 percent, or 68 million tonnes, above the reduced 2010 level. In September, international prices of all cereals with the exception of rice fell sharply, triggered by global economic slowdown and the strengthening of the US dollar as well as large export supplies from the Black Sea region. The expected slower recovery in the world economy will bring more uncertainty to the food security situation. The aggregate cereal imports of LIFDCs in the 2011/12 are estimated to increase after declining for the previous two years.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2, June 2011
09/06/2011
FAO’s latest cereal production forecast for 2011 stands at 2 302 million tonnes, nearly 3 percent higher than in 2010, but 13 million tonnes lower than the forecast published in Food Outlook on 7 June. At this revised level, world cereal production would now be slightly below overall utilization, leading to a further decline in world stocks. The revision largely reflects a downward adjustment to this year’s official maize production forecast in the United States, released on 9 June by USDA. International grain prices remained high in the first half of June. Cereal prices continue to rise in several developing country regions, particularly in import-dependent CIS, Central America and drought-affected Eastern Africa. Staple food prices, however, have remained low and relatively stable in southern and western Africa due to relatively good domestic production in 2010, and in most countries of North Africa due to government interventions. The aggregate cereal output of LIFDCs is forecast to increase by about 2 percent in 2011. However, excluding India, the production of this group is anticipated to remain around the level of 2010.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #1, March 2011
10/03/2011
FAO’s first forecast for world wheat production in 2011 stands at 676 million tonnes, 3.4 percent up from 2010. This level of production would still be below the bumper harvests of 2008 and 2009. International grain prices remained volatile in the first three weeks of March. The cereal import volume in LIFDCs as a group is anticipated to decline in 2010/11 due to increased production. However, their import bill is forecast to rise by 20 percent following higher international prices.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #4, December 2010
09/12/2010
FAO’s latest estimate of the world cereal production in 2010 stands at 2 229 million tonnes, slightly more than the previous forecast in November but still 1.4 percent down from the previous year. Most of the decline is among the major exporting countries while in the Low-Income Food-Deficit countries (LIFDC), cereal output is forecast to increase by 2.5 percent, marking a third consecutive year of sustained growth. The largest increase is estimated for Africa, with record crops in all subregions except North Africa.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #3, September 2010
09/09/2010
International prices of grain have surged since the beginning of July in response to drought-reduced crops in CIS exporting countries and a subsequent decision by the Russian Federation to ban exports. In September wheat prices were 60 to 80 percent higher than at the beginning of the season in July. However, prices are still one-third below their peaks in 2008. In the same period, the price of maize increased by about 40 percent, while that of rice by only 7 percent. FAO’s latest forecast indicates a 2010 global cereal production of about 2 239 million tonnes, only 1 percent lower than last year and still the third largest crop on record. Reduced outputs of grains in CIS countries account for most of the decline. At the current forecast level, the 2010 cereal production, coupled with large carryover stocks, should be adequate to cover the projected world cereal utilization in 2010/11. The world cereal stocks-to-use ratio at the end of marketing year 2010/11 will decline only marginally to 23 percent, still well above the 19.6 percent low level registered in the 2007/08 food crisis period.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2, May 2010
06/05/2010
FAO’s first forecast for world cereal production in 2010 is 2 286 million tonnes, 1.5 percent up from last year and similar to the record level of 2008. However, with some major crops yet to be planted, much will depend on climatic conditions in the coming months. In Low-Income Food-Deficit countries, early prospects for the 2010 crops are mixed. In Southern Africa, smaller maize outputs are anticipated in several countries. In Far East Asia, the impact of dry weather during the winter season was mitigated by adequate irrigation supplies and good wheat and first season rice crops are being gathered. International cereal prices have declined in the past months and are below their levels of a year ago reflecting ample cereal supplies in 2009/10 and prospects for large crops in 2010.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #1, February 2010
11/02/2010
Latest information confirms a further improvement in global cereal supply situation in the current 2009/10 marketing year. Another aboveaverage production in 2009 should exceed consumption by a significant margin and total cereal inventories are forecast to climb to an 8-year high. In several Sahelian and Eastern Africa countries, however, cereal and pasture production declined sharply and a difficult food security situation is anticipated this year in parts of Niger, Chad and northern Nigeria. Pastoralist and agro-pastoralist populations in Kenya, Ethiopia and Eritrea, also face food difficulties due to successive seasons of poor rains. In Haiti, the food security situation has worsened dramatically following the earthquake on 12th January, despite a generally good food production in 2009. Food assistance is being provided to 2 million people. Provision of agricultural inputs for the next main planting from March is urgently needed. Overall, food emergencies currently affect 33 countries around the world.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #4, November 2009
10/09/2009
FAO’s latest forecast confirms a good 2009 world cereal production, slightly below last year’s record level, which coupled with large carryover stocks from the previous season have resulted in ample market supplies. In the group of 77 Low-Income Food-Deficit countries the 2009 aggregate cereal production is forecast marginally below last year’s record level. A sharp reduction in India’s rice crop is anticipated but generally good crops are estimated elsewhere. International prices of wheat and maize, which had returned to normal levels by September, strengthened in October. Rice export prices continued to decline from the 2008 peak but remain well above pre-crisis levels. In LIFDCs food prices remain, in general, significantly higher than in the pre-food price crisis period of two years earlier, which continues to give rise to concern for the food security of vulnerable populations.