Featured publications
Journal; magazine; bulletin
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Triannual Global Report, No. 3, November 2024
08/11/2024
The triannual Crop Prospects and Food Situation report provides a forward-looking global analysis of cereal production, market trends and food security...
Book (stand-alone)
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Triannual Global Report, No. 2, July 2024
16/09/2024
The triannual Crop Prospects and Food Situation report provides a forward-looking analysis of the food situation across the globe, focusing on the cereal...
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Triannual Global Report, No. 1, March 2024
20/03/2024
The triannual Crop Prospects and Food Situation report provides a forward-looking analysis of the food situation across the globe, focusing on the cereal...
Book (stand-alone)
Crop Prospects and Food Situation
01/03/2024
This report is published three times a year (four times before 2023) and provides a forward-looking analysis of the food situation by geographic region,...
Publications
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #4, July 2007
05/07/2007
FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2007 continues to point to a record output, now put at 2 121 million tonnes. The bulk of the increase is expected in maize but a sharp rise in wheat production and a larger rice crop would also contribute to the record harvest. The record 2007 world cereal production forecast is largely supported by the prospect of an all-time high maize harvest in the United States, where producers have planted the largest area since 1940, in response to strong demand from the biofuel industry. However, elsewhere among the main cereal producers in the developed country group, prospects for the 2007 harvest have deteriorated significantly in Europe after drought set-in in south-eastern parts of the region. For the LIFDCs as a group, after four successive successive years of relatively strong years of relatively strong years of relatively strong growth, cereal production in 2007 is forecast to increase by just 1.2 percent from 2006, which is below the rate of population growth. If the largest producers China and India are excluded, the aggregate cereal output of the rest of LIFDCs is forecast to decline slightly from last year.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #3, May 2007
10/05/2007
World cereal production in 2007 remains on course to reach a record level of 2 095 million tonnes, but with some major crops yet to be planted, the forecast is still tentative. Based on the current 2007 production outlook, global cereal supplies are forecast to increase in the new 2007/08 marketing season. However, with carryover stocks at their lowest level since the early 80s, total supplies would still be barely adequate to meet the anticipated demand, which is forecast to increase strongly boosted by the fast-growing biofuels industry. International prices for most cereals have risen signifi cantly in 2006/07 so far, and are likely to remain high in 2007/08. As a result, the cereal import bill of the LIFDCs is forecast to increase by about onequarter in the current season. In the LIFDCs as a group, production prospects point to a 2007 cereal output similar to last year’s good level. However, excluding China and India, the largest producers, the aggregate crop of the remaining countries is forecast to decline slightly.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2, April 2007
05/04/2007
World cereal production in 2007 is forecast by FAO to increase some 4 percent to a record 2 082 million tonnes. The bulk of the increase is expected in maize, with a bumper crop already being gathered in South America, and a sharp increase in plantings expected in the United States. A significant rise in wheat output is also foreseen, with a recovery in some major exporting countries’ crops after weather problems last year. Another good cereal crop likely in 2007 in the group of Low-Income Food-Deficit countries (LIFDCs). Although still highly tentative, FAO’s first forecast indicates that for the LIFDCs as a group, the 2007 cereal production could remain around the above-average level of 2006.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #1, February 2007
08/02/2007
Favourable prospects for 2007 world cereal crops, mainly following expansion of plantings in Europe and North America, coupled with generally satisfactory weather conditions. FAO’s latest estimates put global cereal output in 2006 at just under 2 billion tonnes, 2.7 percent lower than in the previous year but still above average. In percentage terms production of wheat declined the most, then coarse grains, while the reduction for rice is seen to be marginal. The bulk of the decline in the 2006 world cereal output was among the major producing and exporting countries. The 2006 cereal production in the group of LIFDCs increased significantly, with record or good crops in most regions of the world. As a result, cereal import requirements, including food aid, have declined in 2006/07 in many of these countries, mostly in Africa.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #4, November 2006
09/11/2006
The global cereal supply and demand situation has further tightened, with a downward revision of the 2006 world cereal production forecast and a projected increase in cereal utilization in 2006/07. At current forecast levels, the utilization would exceed production by 3.3 percent in 2006/07. World cereal stocks are forecast to decline for the third consecutive year, with those of wheat falling to their lowest level since 1981. Cereal export prices have increased sharply in recent months, mainly in response to tightening world supplies and by November 2006 were well above their levels of a year earlier. Because of higher prices, the cereal import bill of the Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) is forecast to increase by 15 percent in 2006/07.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #3, October 2006
05/10/2006
The FAO’s latest assessment shows that 39 countries are facing food emergencies and require external assistance. Among them, the most pressing humanitarian problem remains the crisis in the Darfur region of Sudan. The already precarious food supply situation may worsen if deteriorating security disrupts the main harvest due to start in the coming few weeks. Prospects for the 2006 world cereal harvest have deteriorated further since July. Exceptionally hot and dry weather is adversely affecting the wheat crops in Australia, Argentina and Brazil, while drier-than-normal weather in parts of South Asia is also raising some concern for the second 2006 paddy crop. Latest information confirms a tighter world cereal balance in 2006/07. Compared to earlier expectations, global cereal output is seen to be smaller, and to meet the anticipated utilization in 2006/07, world closing stocks are forecast to be lower. As a result, international prices of most cereals have increased sharply so far this year. Low supplies call for a closer monitoring of world food situation. Despite good crops in many of the Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries, this year’s anticipated sharp fall in global stocks may lead to a more precarious situation next season should weather problems prevent an increase in world cereal production in 2007. The early outlook for the northern hemisphere’s main winter cereal crops for harvest in 2007 is generally favourable so far. Planting is reported to be proceeding well in Europe, and in the United States, where a large expansion in wheat area is expected.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2, July 2006
06/07/2006
The world cereal balance will tighten in 2006/07: the latest forecast for cereal production in 2006 continues to show a slight decrease in global output, while utilization is expected to grow significantly. With a recovery in feed use and an expansion of industrial uses, world stocks are expected to be drawn down sharply. International prices of most cereals remained firm or rose further in recent months, supported by strong demand and tighter supply prospects. In the Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries, as a group, a modest growth in cereal output is forecast in 2006, while their imports are expected to increase after the substantial decline of 2005/06.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #1, April 2006
06/04/2006
World cereal production in 2006 is forecast to decline marginally from last year’s good level. Wheat output is expected to decrease reflecting smaller crops in the United States and the CIS in Europe, due to adverse weather. Production of coarse grains is tentatively forecast to decline mostly as a result of reduced plantings anticipated in the United States. Rice output may increase as very early prospects are favourable.