Featured publications
Journal; magazine; bulletin
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Triannual Global Report, No. 3, November 2024
08/11/2024
The triannual Crop Prospects and Food Situation report provides a forward-looking global analysis of cereal production, market trends and food security...
Book (stand-alone)
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Triannual Global Report, No. 2, July 2024
16/09/2024
The triannual Crop Prospects and Food Situation report provides a forward-looking analysis of the food situation across the globe, focusing on the cereal...
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Triannual Global Report, No. 1, March 2024
20/03/2024
The triannual Crop Prospects and Food Situation report provides a forward-looking analysis of the food situation across the globe, focusing on the cereal...
Book (stand-alone)
Crop Prospects and Food Situation
01/03/2024
This report is published three times a year (four times before 2023) and provides a forward-looking analysis of the food situation by geographic region,...
Publications
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #3, July 2009
09/07/2009
Domestic food prices in developing countries mostly remain much higher than before the soaring food price crisis despite a sharp decline in international prices since their peaks in 2008. This situation continues to give rise to concern for the food security of low-income vulnerable populations who spend a large share of their incomes on food. FAO’s latest forecast points to a 3.4 percent reduction in world cereal production in 2009, mostly on account of lower plantings and yields among developed countries. In developing countries, output is expected to remain unchanged from last year.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2, April 2009
09/04/2009
High food prices persist in developing countries despite an improved global cereal supply situation and sharp decline in international prices. This is affecting access to food of large numbers of low-income vulnerable populations. A recent analysis of domestic food prices for 58 developing countries shows that latest prices are higher than a year earlier in 78 percent of the cases, and in 43 percent of the cases are higher than 3 months earlier. Mostly affected are sub-Saharan African countries. Global cereal stocks are anticipated to increase sharply at the end of 2008/09 season mainly reflecting the record cereal output in 2008. World cereal production in 2009 is forecast by FAO to fall by 3 percent from the record level of last year. However, the supply outlook for 2009/10 is still satisfactory due to ample carryover stocks. In the Low-Income Food-Deficit countries as a group, the 2009 cereal production could remain around the good level of 2008. Food emergencies persist in 31 countries worldwide despite good 2008 cereal crops in many of the countries normally most at risk from food insecurity.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #1, February 2009
05/02/2009
Early indications point to a reduction in global cereal output in 2009 from the previous year’s record. Smaller plantings and/or adverse weather look likely to bring grain production down in most of the world’s major producers. In Low-Income Food-Deficit countries, prospects for the early 2009 cereal crops point to a lower output. Good crops are expected in North Africa. Although the early outlook has improved in southern Africa a lower maize crop is still expected; prolonged dry weather is adversely affecting wheat prospects in most of Asia, where much depends on the rice crop yet to be planted. Latest information confirms an easing of the cereal supply/demand situation in the Low-Income Food-Deficit countries as a group in 2008/09, following above-average harvests in 2008.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #5, December 2008
11/12/2008
As the year draws to a close, FAO’s latest estimates confirm that a new record high level of global cereal production was achieved in 2008, sufficient to cover the expected increase in utilization in 2008/09 and also allow for a moderate replenishment of world reserves. Most of the increase in production this year has been among the developed countries, with that in the developing countries rising just marginally. In the developing group, outputs rose somewhat more among the Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries, especially in countries where agriculture production support was provided by governments.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #4, October 2008
09/10/2008
World cereal production in 2008 is forecast to increase 4.9 percent to a record 2 232 million tonnes, considerably up from earlier predictions after better than expected results from the major harvests gathered in the past two months. Based on the latest production forecast, a significant improvement in the global supply and demand balance for cereals in the 2008/09 season can be expected. Even allowing for a larger increase in utilization than was reported in July, an 8 percent increase in world cereal stocks could be possible. International prices of most cereals have continued to fall in the past two months, largely in response to favourable prospects for 2008 harvests and thus an improvement in the supply outlook for 2008/09, but also reflecting the influence of falling crude oil prices and financial turmoil in world economies.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #3, July 2008
10/07/2008
World cereal production in 2008 is forecast to increase 2.8 percent to a record 2 180 million tonnes. Most of the increase is in wheat following significant expansion in plantings in all regions. Coarse grains output is expected around the bumper level of last year but lower than earlier anticipated due to severe floods in the United States, the world’s largest producer and exporter. Rice is tentatively forecast to increase slightly from last year’s good level. Despite the anticipated increase in world output, cereal markets will remain tight in 2008/09. Total cereal supply (carry-in stocks plus production) will barely exceed the anticipated utilization and the world cereal reserves will recover only marginally from the current estimated 30-year low.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2, April 2008
10/04/2008
World cereal production in 2008 is forecast to increase 2.6 percent to a record 2 164 million tonnes. The bulk of the increase is expected to be in wheat following significant expansion in plantings in major producing countries. Coarse grains output is tentatively forecast to remain around the bumper level of last year. Rice production is foreseen to increase slightly reflecting production incentives in several Asian countries. However, much will depend on climatic conditions in the coming months. Should the expected growth in 2008 production materialize, the current tight global cereal supply situation could ease in the new 2008/09 season.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #1, February 2008
07/02/2008
Early prospects point to the possibility of a significant increase in world cereal production in 2008, mainly following expansion of winter grain plantings in Europe and the United States coupled with generally satisfactory weather conditions. International prices of most cereals remain high and some are still on the increase. Continuing strong demand and dwindling stocks are providing the backdrop to a prevailing tight global cereal supply and demand situation in the current 2007/08 marketing season, keeping upward pressure on international markets. Cereal imports of the LIFDCs as a group in 2007/08 are forecast to decline by about 2 percent but as a result of soaring international cereal prices and freight rates, the cereal import bill is projected to rise by 35 percent for the second consecutive year. A higher increase is projected for Africa. Prices of basic food have increased in many countries across the world mostly affecting vulnerable populations. The aggregate level of world trade in cereals is expected to peak in 2007/08, driven mainly by a sharp rise in demand for coarse grains, especially for feed use in the EU.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #6, December 2007
06/12/2007
Early prospects for the 2008 wheat crop are favourable. With the winter wheat planting virtually complete in the northern hemisphere, latest estimates point to a significant increase in the global wheat area, in response to current high prices and the removal of the compulsory land setaside for 2008 in the EU, the world’s largest producer. FAO’s latest forecast of the 2007 world cereal production has been revised downwards to 2 101 million tonnes, which is still record and substantially higher than last year. Most of the increase is in coarse grains, especially maize in the United States. In the LIFDCs, as a group, 2008 cereal production is forecast to increase only marginally. However, if the largest countries, China and India, are excluded, the aggregate cereal output of the remaining countries is seen to register a significant decline.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - #5, October 2007
11/10/2007
The global cereal supply and demand situation has continued to tighten in recent months, reflecting the deterioration of prospects for the 2007 world cereal production, which nevertheless is still expected to reach a record high. However, on current indications, this year’s harvest would only just meet the expected level of utilization in 2007/08, thus precluding a replenishment of cereal stocks, which are anticipated to remain at very low levels. International prices of wheat have increased sharply since June hitting record highs in September, in response to tightening world supplies, historically low levels of stocks and sustained demand. Maize quotations are also well above their levels of a year earlier despite the bumper crop materializing this year, mainly reflecting fast-growing demand from the biofuel industry.